Posted on September 18, 2025 by Will Bryant, Justin Williams, Casey Kelly, and Jacob Kincer
The United States faces a growing strategic challenge: China has emerged as the world’s dominant energy financier, outpacing the U.S. nearly ten-to-one in global markets and establishing itself as a primary partner in key nations like Brazil. This first-of-a-kind analysis of U.S. and Chinese energy finance shows that, since 2015, China has outpaced the U.S. by more than 100x in public energy finance in Brazil, $60B to $472M.
Global public investment follows a similar pattern, with China outstripping the U.S. $446 billion to $45 billion. As a primary strategic competitor, China’s financial initiatives lead to geopolitical gain and undermine U.S. interests. This is particularly true in critical countries like Brazil, the Western Hemisphere’s second-largest economy, where China has rapidly deepened its presence in Brazil’s energy sector.
This massive investment gap undermines U.S. interests and threatens U.S. geopolitical strength because:
China’s growing influence not only directly challenges U.S. strategic interests in a vital South American nation but also cedes immense economic opportunity for U.S. businesses in the continent’s largest market. Brazil is an important partner for the U.S. in the Western Hemisphere, and its rapidly growing domestic energy market is an export target for innovative American technology.
The authors of this report chose Brazil for this case study because it is the largest developing economy in the Western Hemisphere and a key energy partner for both the U.S. and China. Unfortunately, it is an example of a larger issue as the U.S. seeks to compete with China. This report outlines a clear roadmap of actions that can be taken to improve the situation.
